Best Football Betting Strategy Ever
A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.
To give an example, say you’re interested this week in betting Jets -4, Patriots +3, Dolphins +2.5 and Colts -7. If your bankroll is limited to just $100, using straight wagers you’d make four separate bets of $25 to win $22.73. If you we’re feeling both lucky and in the mood to gamble, you might instead bet them all together as a four team parlay. Under the parlay option, the stakes would be $100 to win at least $1,000. To win, you’ll need to go 4-0; if one or more games push while all others win, the payout is reduced, and with any other outcome, the bet is a loss.
In football, the most common modification is six points. So let’s say this week there are three bets you like: Jets -7.5, Raiders +1.5, and Bills +5.5. Rather than betting these straight or in a parlay, you could make a three team six point teaser bet of Jets -1.5, Raiders +7.5, Bills +11.5. To win the bet, you’ll need all three teams to cover. Strategy 1: The Lucky 15 horse racing strategy up over 27% ROI and proven to work! Hall of Fame rated and highly recommended – plus comes with a 50% discount for SBC members. Strategy 2 – How to maximise Tom Segal’s Pricewise tips for the best, smoothest results. Exclusive article from our resident pro-betting expert. College Football Betting. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s talk about the fundamentals of college football betting. Much like the NFL, college football offers the standard bets: spread, moneyline, totals, parlays, and teasers. Unique to college football are the 1st quarter and halftime bets. Let’s take a look at each type. You might be considering the best football sports betting strategy to make the games you watch more enjoyable, or you’d like to make money. Whichever way you look at it – football betting isn’t easy, and starting off with a soccer betting for beginners guide isn’t a bad idea. Unless you do your homework before placing a wager, only luck can let you win.
What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay.
Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on!
Are Parlays Sucker Bets?
There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.
The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:
2 teams 2.6 to 1
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 20-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 80-1
8 teams 150-1
Online the odds are similar, though some sites such as BetNow and MyBookie offer better odds starting with three teams and up. What’s important to note is that these are fixed odds based on a 50/50 wagering proposition. If a spread is listed at Home Team -7 / Road Team +7 this is 50/50 proposition. If, instead, the spread was Home Team -7 -105 / Road Team +7 -115, this is no longer a 50/50 proposition, and the payout will be calculated using a method bookmakers refer to as “true odds”. I’ll cover that later in this article, but first let’s take a moment to understand where fixed parlay odds are derived from.
Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:
Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91)
Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65)
Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97)
Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31)
Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41)
Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51)
Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70)
Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)
The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.
What Does a Parlay Pay?
As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds:
In general two team parlays pay +260, or $260 for every $100 bet. BetNow offers +264.5, and 5Dimes.eu offers +264, which is better than the +260 most betting sites offer.
3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts.
This is the area where betting sites generally hurt the sports bettor, paying only 10 to 1, which gives them a 31.25% advantage. This can be avoided when betting at BetNow where the payout is +1228.3, or at 5Dimes where it is +1228.
Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these.
How much does a 15 team parlay pay? A 15 team parlay will pay out over +16,000. I just tested this out and a $1 15 team NFL parlay at -110 odds will payout $16,306. Good luck hitting on that!
True Odds Parlays
1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.
To calculate true odd parlays, each bet first needs to be converted into a multiplier. To do this, take what a winning ticket would return and divide it by the amount risked. For example, at -110 a $110 stake returns $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). Calculating the multiplier as return/risk here, we plug in 210/110, which means the multiplier is 1.91. If we did the same on -115, the multiplier is 215/115=1.87.
Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.
As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.
Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays
1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.
2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.
3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.
Parlays That Make the Most Sense:
Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline.
Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race.
Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses.
Circumventing Betting Limits – I’ll warn you upfront that betting sites do not take kindly to this, and it might get you banned. The basic idea here is, say you find a parlay with monster value in a small market with low betting limits. Let’s say a woman’s field hockey line opens at +150 when it should be +100. Here making ten unique two-team parlays, using the +150 bet with a random -110 each time might be advantageous, as on average you’ll get down 5 times the max bet. At -110 juice the expected ROI is less, but to get the maximum amount down on line of significant value, it might make sense. While personally I rarely use this strategy online, I do attempt to get away with it in Las Vegas from time to time. This takes a little bit of acting, such as starting to walk away from the cage and then saying wait, also give me… Know this: It is a trick of the trade advantage players use that is not for novice bettors.
This concludes our article on parlay betting. As a final tip: if you enjoy using parlays as a lottery ticket, www.Bovada.lv runs a $10,000 weekly parlay jackpot during football season, which is an added bonus on top of what a $5 stake pays on a 10 team parlay win. To learn more, see the promo section at www.Bovada.lv. If nothing else, this article gives you some great conversation material next time someone in the sports bar says, parlays are for suckers. Hopefully, it ends up being much more than that, adding extra winnings to your bankroll. Either way, we wish you the best of luck.
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How To Get Max Value When Betting
Soccer, as we all know, is one of the most popular games in the country and also across the world. There are thousands who watch the sport just for the fun of it and to get some enjoyment and excitement coupled with happiness.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are also millions who perhaps would like to bet on the sports and try to make some money out of it. We will in this article be talking about the football betting.
Though it might look easy as far as betting on football is concerned, unless one has the right football betting strategy, he or she will not be able to make big money.
Best Football Betting Strategy Ever
It is not only about good fortune, calculators, and other such attributes. There are a number of important factors that must be taken into account when it comes to betting on football.
We will learn about some important points that we should keep in mind when it comes to football betting.
It certainly will help in more ways than one and will assist players and punters to increase their chances of winning by quite a few notches.
However, these are just general guidelines, and the applicability and use of the same could vary from one place to another.
Decide Why You Want To Bet
To begin with, you must as a player, decide as to why you want to bet as far as football is concerned. If you are betting for the fun of it, you could afford to have a lackadaisical approach to it.
You could choose small amounts to bet and therefore even if you lose you will not feel the pinch too much.
On the other end of the spectrum if you are betting for the purpose of making big money and if you want to be a serious bettor then you must strive hard and find out the best football betting strategy without which you may not be able to make much of headway.
Yes, you might end up winning small amounts here and there, but this will not serve your larger and broader objective of making big money out of football betting.
Hence, making up your mind as regarding your final objective is perhaps something which you must always keep in mind.
Your objective must be to beat your bookie. Though all soccer matches are not perfectly predictable, certain tips and guidelines if followed can certainly increase your chance of winning by quite a few notches.
The Form of the Team
The first and foremost golden rule is to be very confident and clear about the quality and form of the team. You must learn as a bettor take some time off and be sure that you check the form and recent performances of the team.
If needed you must not hesitate to read the latest reports on various matches and find out the reasons for the win of a particular team or for the loss of another team.
At times the match might have ended in a draw and if so the reasons for the same should also be always found out.
This is considered to be one of the best football betting strategies ever, and you must not lose sight of it at any point in time.
Records of the Team
The next important point is always to be sure that you have a clear idea about the records of the team. The win, loss, draw and other records both at home and away from home should always be ready with you.
Hence, when you bet you must have a close look at these records and then take inputs from other sources such as bookies, other experienced players, and bettors and then take a final call.
You also must check the history of the head to head results between two teams or countries. This is important because in soccer quite often the history often repeats year after year.
The Overall Team News
The next job is to be sure to always check for the important news pertaining to the team as a whole. You must find out more about the injuries and suspensions to team members.
You should also try and identify if any key players are missing and how important is their absence or presence.
Checking the records of these players is also important, and you must also know something about the players who could be replacing them.
The next important thing is to have a better idea about the overall motivation levels of the team. This is very important and could make all the difference between winning and losing.
Their standing in the league table, the overall points they have and the importance of the specific match to their overall prospects are also important attributes that must always be taken into account.
Schedule of Matches
You also must spend some time to find out about the schedule of matches. If the schedule between one match and the other is too tight, it could make the players tired, and they may not be 100% perfectly fit.
The last game could have been demoralizing or motivating. Hence, if the next game is played within a day or two, the ripple effective of the mind could play a big role in the outcome of the next matches.
Few Tips about Actual Betting
Now that we have some idea about the things to be kept in mind as far as teams are concerned, the next task is to ensure that you must follow some useful tips as far as actual betting is concerned.
You must always bet only within your limits and must never go overboard. You must pre-define a staking amount and system and must try to stick to it at all points of time.
Best Football Betting Strategy Ever Wins
You must try and avoid betting on teams and leagues about which you do not have the right information and knowledge.
Best Football Betting Strategy Every
While being positive and aggressive is fine, overconfidence should be avoided because of the unpredictable nature of the game.