Table Of Contents

• Betting Against the Spread (ATS) is the most popular way of betting on the NFL
• Use this beginner's guide to learn what is against the spread in betting and why it matters
• And don't miss the weekly expert pick!

The National Football League - NFL is one of the world's most popular leagues to bet on.

You can see how the line moves, the point spread, moneyline and the OVER/UNDER odds. These are all impacted by how much the public is betting on the game. For example, college football consensus picks can show you how sportsbooks are balancing the action by moving the lines. One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following. Sports Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Public Betting Trends, News and ATS Statistics from TheSpread – Since 1999 We Have Been the Home of Point Spread Information.

Millions of fans back their favorite teams and star players throughout the 17-week regular season and all the way through to the most important event of the year: the Super Bowl.

With the advent of online betting and live streaming, the NFL is more accessible to bettors than ever.

While there are literally dozens of markets available, both before and during the game, we're going to focus on one market in particular: betting against the spread (ATS).

Against the spread (ATS) betting is the most popular way to bet on the NFL.

When betting against the spread, you aren't just betting on who will win the game.

You bet on a certain team winning by a predetermined points margin.

If you are wondering why would you complicate your betting to this point and not choose something simpler like a moneyline bet, think about this:

Betting against the spread you can still profit even if the team you bet on loses.

How to make NFL picks against the spread

The best way to explain against the spread betting is to use an example and look at the numbers.

In our scenario, the Baltimore Ravens play with the Cleveland Browns. The Baltimore Ravens are the favorites by 7.5 points, as indicated by the minus sign.

The favored Baltimore is laying 7.5 points, which means that you take 7.5 points away from their score at the end of the game.

If they still have more points than Cleveland, as in this example, they have covered the spread.

Baltimore will have needed to have won by 8 points or more for you to have won your bet.

When betting against the spread, one thing you should bear in mind above all else is that your opinion on which team will win the game is irrelevant.

When you bet against the spread, your mission is not to pick the winner. You bet to predicting how many points a team will win by.

Theoretically, a team could have an undefeated season and yet fail to cover the spread in each game they play. It depends on the line they're up against.

Best Sites to Bet Against the Spread

As an online bettor, you need sportsbooks that are:

• Safe
• Licensed
• Offer great odds
• Pay out fast

And have enough options to bet against the spread, of course.

To help you find the best site to try betting against the spread, we teamed up with the guys at Oddscheker — our sister sports book guide — and asked them to do some research for us.

Here are the three best sportsbooks for betting against the spread, according to Oddschecker.

FanDuel

One of the best sportsbooks to bet against the spread with is FanDuel.

In terms of what you would want from a sportsbook, FanDuel checks all the boxes, with:

• A positive bet variety
• A flexible cashier
• An easy and fluid interface

They offer especially generous odds on the spread on the two New York teams (the Giants and Jets), so it's worth taking these two teams into account when looking at which games to bet on.

DraftKings

Draftkings is another popular option for against the spread betting, with a wealth of valuable information and statistics available to make the right pick all the time.

This information includes against the spread records.

DraftKings is also a great option if you're an inexperienced bettor who might like to bet on-the-go.

Its clean and user-friendly mobile interface is perfect for beginners who might otherwise feel overwhelmed by a more elaborate design.

BetAmerica

BetAmerica is a sportsbook that also offers against the spread betting, along with other popular kinds of NFL bets.

Right now, you get a $100 match bonus on your initial deposit, giving you the chance to make your first spread bet with them really count.

If value is what you are after, you better grab the BetAmerica's bonus offer before it's gone.

Where Can I Find NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread?

The easiest way for you to understand NFL betting against the spread and grow your bankroll as you do so, is to rely on the best NFL expert picks against the spread

Against the spread bets are discussed openly by fans and announcers alike, and NFL is one of the few of the major sports where this is the case.

They take a number of factors into account when making weekly spread betting picks, such as:

• Conditions
• Form
• Head-to-head records

When you look at the results of their suggestions, we suggest you to look at Oddschecker as your primary source of the best NFL picks against the spread.

There's an entire section dedicated to NFL picks where you find everything you need to place your bets.

Once you've looked at the expert picks against the spread offered by Oddschecker and know which you feel the most confident in, you can finally place your bet.

If you are in a hurry and you just want quick NFL picks against the spread, here's what we have for you this week:

NFL: Against The Spread Pick - Sunday 2nd February 2020

What Are the Best Sites for NFL Picks Against the Spread?

Against the spread betting can be very lucrative when you know what you're doing. But — where do you get started?

In each week of the NFL season, numerous sportsbooks create their own odds for betting against the spread.

You can spend your time scrolling through them and putting them into a spreadsheet to find the best sites for you — or you can rely on an odds comparison site who does that for you.

With so many different sportsbooks around, it makes sense to start from a comparison site like Oddschecker (see here for their NFL picks against the spread).

Their service is free of charge and they help you compare the spread and ensure that you're always the best possible odds available.

Other popular NFL bets

Moneyline

While against the spread betting is undoubtedly exciting, it can also frustrate some bettors whose betting style suits a more straightforward approach.

The most basic kind of bet in NFL football is the moneyline bet.

This is where you place a bet on a team to win the game outright without any spread involved. If you have confidence in the underdog, moneyline bets are a great way to increase your profits.

Here's an example:

Here, you would need to bet $330 to make a $100 profit on a Miami win. If you wanted to bet on a Buffalo win, you would bet any amount you want to, and if they won, you would be paid 3.7x that amount.

In this case, Buffalo won. So if you bet $100, you would be paid $370, including your $100 wager.

Over/under

When you're unsure on which team will win the game, another option is to bet on the number of points scored.

Here, the sportsbook makes a prediction on the combined points at the end of the game and offers odds on the points totalling either over or under that amount.

This still makes the game exciting to watch, because even if one of the two teams is clearly going to win, and it's only in the third quarter, there may yet be a last-second field goal that turns the game.

Betting Against the Spread FAQ

Spreads are subject to change based on injury reports and which team the money is going on. If Lamar Jackson is injured two days before the game, for example, the spread will decrease.

This happens frequently and is called a “push”. In this case, your money is refunded by the sportsbook. An example of a push would be if Cincinnati was a six-point favourite over Tampa Bay and they won by exactly six points.

This would mean neither Cincinnati (-6), or Tampa Bay (+6) would be a winner, and this would then result in a push.

Yes, sportsbooks offer odds for different points in the game, such as at the end of the first quarter or at the end of the half. It's up to you to determine at which point to bet against the spread.

Oddschecker provides an odds comparison service so you can see all the odds, offers, and promotions from every single sportsbook in one place.

The site also provide free picks and analysis across every single sport. This means that at Oddschecker, you will always be able to see the best NFL odds and picks the market has to offer.

_{All odds correct and available at oddschecker.com/us at the time of publishing. Odds and offers available in New Jersey only. 21+}

If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you’ve heard of point spreads. Here’s how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you’ll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.

Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.

With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it’s easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it’s NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!

We’ve provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you’d like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner’s guide to betting point spreads.

Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting

Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.

• Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
• Use Multiple Betting Sites
• Be Careful of Road Favorites
• Understand Key Numbers

Let’s go over each of these tips in a little more detail.

Take Advantage of Bonus Offers

One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.

Use Multiple Betting Sites

We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That’s not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn’t take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.

Let’s take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.

Another site might offer a slightly different spread.

If you’re betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you’ll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you’ll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you’ll push and get your stake returned.

On the other hand, if you’re betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.

It’s only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.

Be Careful of Road Favorites

Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.

We’re not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don’t just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.

Understand Key Numbers

While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.

With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it’s very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.

Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.

Now that we’ve got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.

Point Spread Betting in Football

One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.

A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.

How To Pick Games Against The Spread

Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.

If you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you’ll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.

Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let’s say you’re shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that’s offering +7.5. There’s a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn’t quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you’re specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they’re against the market.

It’s also important to consider whether or not there’s any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there’s an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.

Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we’re here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.

Point Spread Betting in Basketball

Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let’s say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.

A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).

When using this strategy, it’s helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.

Football Expert Picks Against Spread

This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn’t the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.

College Football Picks Against Spreads

The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It’s important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.

To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let’s assume you’ve purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you’d win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.

Go to our odds converter, and you’ll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.

If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.

If you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you’re allowed to wager. It’s not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, “Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you’re allowed to bet per game is $500.00.”
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That’s why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you’re so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you’ll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.