In Play Tennis Betting
Understanding the benefit of using data when assessing value bets in tennis is naturally, very useful, for successful betting.
In-play tennis betting operates in the same basic manner as standard betting with one key exception: you can place bets during matches as the game progresses. This means instead of making sure you have all your wagers placed before the match begins, you can tune in to watch the action live and place short-term wagers throughout the match. Live In-Play Tennis Betting. At mr.play, we offer in-play betting markets on a massive range of matches taking place in different tournaments around the world. For each match there is a great range of markets to give you a wide variety of betting options. Tennis is tailor-made for betting live and in-play! Besides betting on the winner of a match and the outright winner of a professional or open tournament, Sportingbet allows you to place a wager on events within the match such as how many games will be played in total, who will win the first set, what will the final set-score be, who will win. Jan 20, 2021 In-Play Tennis Betting With Oddspedia’s Live Odds Widget Betting while a game is in progress can be quite exciting, rather than waiting for matches to finish, your selected bet could just be moments away from being settled.
While tennis punters tend to either be in one of two camps – ones who trust their eyes, and the others who use stats and data, even the former genre will almost always consider data in some way, shape or form.
Having established a website which supplies extensive tennis data, I thought I’d run through some of the various considerations when developing a tennis betting strategy and attempting to assess whether either player represents a value betting proposition.
Also included: Free Stats & Tennis Resources
Court Speed
When a match is listed on a website, or discussed on TV, it will be discussed as a generic surface, such as hard court, indoor hard court, clay court or grass court. These generic descriptions are often misleading, as the surface manufacturer, ball supplier and climatic conditions have a huge impact on the likely court speed.
One clay court can play considerably differently to another, for example. During the clay Masters season in the European spring, the event at Madrid (which is at some altitude) plays much quicker than the tournament in Monte Carlo.
With this in mind, non-clay courters who have a big serve are more likely to have success in Madrid than in Monte Carlo, which has conditions which suit return-orientated grinders.
Rafa Nadal loves slow conditions, and despite Madrid being in his home country, the quicker conditions haven’t been to his taste, recording a much worse record there than in those slower conditions in Monte Carlo.
Mathematically speaking, I am more concerned with the impact of the conditions than understanding the underlying reasons behind them. Looking at the aces per game mean, compared to the tour surface average, is useful, as is comparing service points won and service hold percentages with those tour mean numbers. Quicker condition venues will have higher figures for all three metrics.
Projected Hold Percentage
Neatly tying in with court speed is the projected hold percentage for a match-up. The reason why it neatly ties in, is due to the effect that court speed will have on these projected hold numbers.
Having understood the impact of court speed, modellers can use service/return points won percentages, or serve hold/break opponent figures to predict a projected hold percentage for both players, which can then be assessed to establish a model price for either player.
If these have a sizeable discrepancy from the available bookmaker prices, a bet can be considered, assuming there are no other external issues needing to be factored in.
Head To Head Data
In the media, a narrow h2h lead, such as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 is often mentioned as a positive for a given player. However, while it certainly cannot be a negative, tennis is a sport determined by very fine margins and having won one or two previous meetings isn’t a major issue at all – in fact, those media outlets pushing this as a valuable factor in pre-match assessment are often guilty of lazy journalism.
Previously, I discussed this with a former top ten player.
He had a disastrous head to head record against a particular opponent, yet he said that he felt that…
In Play Tennis Betting Tips
His h2h record had no bearing on his mental state prior to the matches.
He lost six consecutive deciding sets against that particular player (including numerous final set tiebreaks) and was in a dominant position in a number of these matches too. He said he felt very capable of beating that player and small margins determined his losses.
Understanding the context of head to head matches is key:
- Has the losing player lost a lot of tight matches in the series?
- Were they ranked much worse in those previous matches, before exhibiting current improvement?
- Did the leading player play matches on a surface which considerably favoured him?
All these factors need to be considered when using h2h data as part of any betting strategy, in addition to the player data from these previous match-ups.
Injury & Fatigue Considerations
Many tennis match-ups have fitness concerns for one or both players.
In Play Tennis Betting Odds
These might be short-term injury (perhaps the player retired in a previous match) or long-term injury – we’ve seen that Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka, to give two recent examples, have had considerable difficulties even getting close to previous levels on their returns to tour.
Another concern here would be an arduous schedule, which could be from the current tournament (consecutive long matches, for example), or from previous weeks (perhaps consecutive runs to the latter stages in back-to-back events).
Travel considerations are also necessary to think about, particularly after Davis or Fed Cup weekends – frequently a player will have to fly halfway around the world and then have little time to acclimatise prior to their first-round match.
By building up a historical database of these situations it is possible to make a quantifiable judgement as to the effect of these various fitness concerns, which can then be used to make adjustments to basic model pricing.
Key Point Variance
The final point I would like to discuss is key point variance. In short, it is very rare for a player to be ‘clutch’ long-term, with the ability to convert and save break points usually rather variance-heavy.
In Play Tennis Betting Odds
For example, there are regularly players who have won 60% of their matches over a given time frame despite having won a 100% or fewer combined serve and return points won percentage. In the long run, this 100% figure should yield a 50% win rate, so that particular player is winning matches at a rate greater than their expectations, and in these spots, the player usually mean-reverts by losing some matches in the short or medium term.
Conversely, some players might look on the surface to be in a bad run of ‘form’, but statistics may indicate they are much better than these bare results.
Sam Querrey, on hard courts, is currently one. He’s winning more than 50% of competed points over the last 12 months but has lost more matches than he’s won – basically, he’s lost more than his fair share of key points. I’d suggest he should be able to turn that around in the not too distant future.
If you’re not taking these key data points into consideration when developing your betting strategies for Tennis then it’s likely you’re overlooking some of the most important data available to you.
Tennis Betting Resources
Free Stats Providers
Live Streaming / Scores
- Bet365 – bet & watch thousands of tennis matches live (access streams with £5 funded account *geo restrictions apply)
Bookmakers:
- Tennis Bookmakers Reviewed (by Cheeky Punter)
Related Posts:
Introduction of live betting into the betting industry was a game changer a few years ago. Placing in play betting tips have become massively popular overnight. It offers much more fun and you can get a much higher edge over bookmakers then ever before. In the old days, you just check team or players statistics, their performance from last matches and then just betting prematch, hope for the best.
These days, you can watch teams or players performances online, check their tactics and state of mind realtime and place in play betting tips with much more confidence with these pieces of information. In this article, I wanna show you one very simple in play betting strategy. When you use this strategy correctly, you can beat the bookies and make money on in play betting without any deep knowledge of the sport.
What is in play betting best bookmaker?
Before you bet your first in play betting tips, you need the account at some online booking company. There are hundreds of them on the market. Some of them are great for in play betting, some of them are better for prematch bets. There are some huge companies on the market and you do no mistake when you put your money there and try in play betting with them. To name just a few of them, Betfred, Bwin or Betfair are big players on the betting market and offer the huge amount of in-play betting events.
What sports can you bet on?
Every online betting site has different matches available for in play betting. But most of them are covering most important football leagues (like Premier League in England or Bundesliga in Germany), biggest tennis tournaments (Grand Slams and Master series) and favorite sports in the USA.
What is in play betting best strategy?
Every professional bettor has its own, unique in play betting strategy. There is a lot of them. But developing and testing them could be very expensive and time-consuming. So if you wanna start putting your in play betting tips and don´t spend hundreds of hours (and maybe a lot of money) with testing it, you can use our simple in play betting strategy.
It´s focused on football and goal of this strategy is producing so-called „green bets“. When you made a green bet, it means you bet on all possible outcomes of the match in good odds and you win, no matter what is the final result of the match.
How can we beat bookies with in play betting strategy?
There is a lot of different in play betting systems. We will cover just one of them, so you can try it on your own when you place your first in play betting tips. But whatever strategy or system you wanna use for live betting, you have to follow some simple money management rules. The basic rule is to don´t risk much money. You should only risk amount of money you can afford to lose without impact on your life.
As a next step, you take this amount of money (let say 100 Euros, it will be you betting bankroll now) and you bet only small part of it on every bet. As a general rule, you should bet no more than 3% of your bankroll on every single bet. Following this simple your, you should be ok when you´ re on a bad run of bets and you lose more of them in the row. On the other side, when everything is running fine, your bets are getting bigger as your bankroll rise up.
So when you start, you bet 3 Euros on your first bet. When you win first few bets and your bankroll rise to 150 Euros, your next bet will be 4,5 Euros (3% from 150 Euros) and so on. This rule is very simple, but it´s necessary to follow it if you´re serious about betting and wanna be successful bettor. These money management rules are important in any kind of online gamble you wanna try (betting, poker, Daily Fantasy Sports,…), but it´s not easy to follow them during live betting. Action can be fast and furious with live in play betting, so keep this rules in mind and bet carefully.
Betting on a low number of total goals in football
This in play betting system is very simple and easy to follow. You just bet on a low number of goals and wait for odds to get your way. Then bet the second option (higher number of goals) to secure your profit.
For real life example, let´s say you´re watching a football match. It started a few minutes ago and in 15. minute, the score is 0:0. There are odds 1,7 on over 0,5 goal in the first half of the match and odds 2,5 on bet under 0,5 goal in the first half of the match. You see both teams are playing carefully and there is a high chance of low scoring game (or first half, at least). So you see it´s good opportunity to follow this strategy and bet 10Euros on under 0,5 goal with odds 2,5.
You wait for a few minutes (10 minutes should be long enough) and see odds on over 0,5 goal rise up. And when they are over 2, you just can put the second bet on over 0,5 goals to secure profit and make so-called „green bet“.
The amount depends on you, but remember you have 15 Euros profit from the first bet. So you can bet for example 10 Euros on over 0,5 to break even with this bet and let rest (5Euros) be your profit when there is no goal in first half. When there is a goal, you have made no profit with this strategy, but you also covered this option and there is no loss at all. You made a nice green bet, as both yours in play betting tips cover loses and one of them made a nice profit.
Top 3 Bookmakers
- Betting categories